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Benfica Luanda vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
FT
3 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
3/8/2015GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Benfica Luanda43%
×Draw31%
Sagrada Esperança26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Luanda
1.15
Sagrada Esperança
0.82

Benfica Luanda creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 112 away

creates per match

Benfica Luanda
1.30
Sagrada Esperança
0.90

allows per match

Benfica Luanda
0.75
Sagrada Esperança
0.99

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw
74%
Benfica Luanda or Sagrada Esperança
69%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
57%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
18%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
68%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
32%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
11%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
56%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
20%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
62%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 1.30 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.90 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more
43%
level
31%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
26%

Benfica Luanda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica Luanda vs Sagrada Esperança

Benfica Luanda beat Sagrada Esperança 3-0 in Girabola on March 8, 2015.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.