1º de Agosto 1–1 Benfica Luanda: Result & Stats

1º de Agosto

FT

1 – 1

Benfica Luanda

5/24/2015

Girabola · Round 14Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

1º de Agosto43%

×Draw30%

Benfica Luanda27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º de AgostoExpected goals in this matchBenfica Luanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.85

1º de Agosto

1.16

Benfica Luanda

0.85

1º de Agosto creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

1.81

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

1º de Agosto

1.81

Benfica Luanda

1.00

allows per match

1º de Agosto

0.71

Benfica Luanda

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Benfica Luanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw

73%

1º de Agosto or Benfica Luanda

70%

Draw or Benfica Luanda

57%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

18%

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

69%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

32%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

11%

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals

57%

Benfica Luanda 2+ goals

21%

Benfica Luanda 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

62%

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Benfica Luanda away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.81 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Benfica Luanda attack 1.00 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1º de Agosto scores more

43%

level

30%

Benfica Luanda scores more

27%

1º de Agosto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.