Benfica Luanda 1–4 1º de Agosto: Result & Stats

Benfica Luanda

FT

1 – 4

1º de Agosto

10/4/2015

Girabola · Round 29Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Benfica Luanda16%

×Draw26%

1º de Agosto59%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica LuandaExpected goals in this match1º de Agosto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.54

Benfica Luanda

0.65

1º de Agosto

1.54

1º de Agosto creates 137% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

0.75

creates per match

1.59

1.50

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Benfica Luanda

0.75

1º de Agosto

1.59

allows per match

Benfica Luanda

1.50

1º de Agosto

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

1º de Agosto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw

41%

Benfica Luanda or 1º de Agosto

74%

Draw or 1º de Agosto

84%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+

4%

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals

48%

Benfica Luanda 2+ goals

14%

Benfica Luanda 3+ goals

3%

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

79%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

45%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)

21%

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

1º de Agosto away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 0.75 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.65

1º de Agosto attack 1.59 + Benfica Luanda defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more

16%

level

26%

1º de Agosto scores more

59%

1º de Agosto at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff