ZFC Meuselwitz 1–0 BFC Preussen: Result & Stats

ZFC Meuselwitz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

BFC Preussen

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ZFC Meuselwitz46%

×Draw22%

BFC Preussen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZFC MeuselwitzExpected goals in this matchBFC Preussen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.58

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.93

BFC Preussen

1.58

ZFC Meuselwitz creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.30

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

ZFC Meuselwitz

2.30

BFC Preussen

1.67

allows per match

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.50

BFC Preussen

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZFC Meuselwitz+0.00on par

BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZFC Meuselwitz ↓

BFC Preussen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

ZFC Meuselwitz or draw

68%

ZFC Meuselwitz or BFC Preussen

78%

Draw or BFC Preussen

54%

Winning margin

ZFC Meuselwitz wins by 2+

26%

BFC Preussen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ZFC Meuselwitz 1+ goals

85%

ZFC Meuselwitz 2+ goals

57%

ZFC Meuselwitz 3+ goals

30%

BFC Preussen 1+ goals

79%

BFC Preussen 2+ goals

47%

BFC Preussen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

ZFC Meuselwitz (draw refunded)

59%

BFC Preussen (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZFC Meuselwitz at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZFC Meuselwitz attack 2.30 + BFC Preussen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.93

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + ZFC Meuselwitz defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ZFC Meuselwitz scores more

46%

level

22%

BFC Preussen scores more

32%

ZFC Meuselwitz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ZFC Meuselwitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff