ZFC Meuselwitz 2–3 BFC Preussen: Result & Stats

ZFC Meuselwitz

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

BFC Preussen

L. Fischer 82'

F. Hansch 13'

O. Hoch 78'

L. Butkovic 67'

P. Fontein 59'

4/1/2026

Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 16bluechip-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ZFC Meuselwitz24%

×Draw22%

BFC Preussen54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZFC MeuselwitzExpected goals in this matchBFC Preussen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.96

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.25

BFC Preussen

1.96

BFC Preussen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

2.25

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.33

BFC Preussen

1.67

allows per match

ZFC Meuselwitz

2.25

BFC Preussen

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZFC Meuselwitz+0.00on par

BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZFC Meuselwitz ↓

BFC Preussen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

ZFC Meuselwitz or draw

46%

ZFC Meuselwitz or BFC Preussen

78%

Draw or BFC Preussen

76%

Winning margin

ZFC Meuselwitz wins by 2+

10%

BFC Preussen wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

ZFC Meuselwitz 1+ goals

71%

ZFC Meuselwitz 2+ goals

36%

ZFC Meuselwitz 3+ goals

13%

BFC Preussen 1+ goals

86%

BFC Preussen 2+ goals

58%

BFC Preussen 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

ZFC Meuselwitz (draw refunded)

31%

BFC Preussen (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZFC Meuselwitz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZFC Meuselwitz attack 1.33 + BFC Preussen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + ZFC Meuselwitz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ZFC Meuselwitz scores more

24%

level

22%

BFC Preussen scores more

54%

BFC Preussen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "BFC Preussen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

59'

67'

78'

82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff