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Zeta vs Grbalj — Second League 2025

Zeta
Zeta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grbalj
Grbalj
M. Damjanovic 59' (OG)
5/6/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 32Stadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zeta37%
×Draw29%
Grbalj34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeta
1.16
Grbalj
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

Zeta
0.88
Grbalj
1.33

allows per match

Zeta
0.88
Grbalj
1.43

finishing

Zeta+0.00on par
Grbalj+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeta ↓

Grbalj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zeta or draw
66%
Zeta or Grbalj
71%
Draw or Grbalj
63%

Winning margin

Zeta wins by 2+
15%
Grbalj wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zeta 1+ goals
69%
Zeta 2+ goals
32%
Zeta 3+ goals
11%
Grbalj 1+ goals
67%
Grbalj 2+ goals
30%
Grbalj 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zeta (draw refunded)
52%
Grbalj (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeta at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Grbalj away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeta attack 0.88 + Grbalj defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Grbalj attack 1.33 + Zeta defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zeta scores more
37%
level
29%
Grbalj scores more
34%

Zeta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zeta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
M. DamjanovicOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zeta 1 – 0 Grbalj

Zeta beat Grbalj 1-0 in Second League on May 6, 2023.

Goals: M. Damjanovic (59' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Trešnjica in Golubovci.