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Grbalj vs Zeta — Second League 2025

Grbalj
Grbalj
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zeta
Zeta
F. Kalacevic 73'
9/11/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Stadion Donja Sutvara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Grbalj56%
×Draw26%
Zeta18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grbalj
1.53
Zeta
0.74

Grbalj creates 107% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

creates per match

Grbalj
1.95
Zeta
0.67

allows per match

Grbalj
0.80
Zeta
1.11

finishing

Grbalj+0.00on par
Zeta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grbalj ↓

Zeta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Grbalj or draw
82%
Grbalj or Zeta
74%
Draw or Zeta
44%

Winning margin

Grbalj wins by 2+
29%
Zeta wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grbalj 1+ goals
78%
Grbalj 2+ goals
45%
Grbalj 3+ goals
20%
Zeta 1+ goals
52%
Zeta 2+ goals
17%
Zeta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Grbalj (draw refunded)
76%
Zeta (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grbalj at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Zeta away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grbalj attack 1.95 + Zeta defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.53

Zeta attack 0.67 + Grbalj defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Grbalj scores more
56%
level
26%
Zeta scores more
18%

Grbalj at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Grbalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
F. Kalacevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grbalj 0 – 1 Zeta

Zeta beat Grbalj 1-0 in Second League on September 11, 2022.

Goals: F. Kalacevic (73').

The match was played at Stadion Donja Sutvara in Radanovići.