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Zestafoni vs Varketili — Liga 3 2024

Zestafoni
Zestafoni
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Varketili
Varketili
11/29/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zestafoni35%
×Draw26%
Varketili39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zestafoni
1.32
Varketili
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

creates per match

Zestafoni
1.27
Varketili
1.59

allows per match

Zestafoni
1.20
Varketili
1.38

finishing

Zestafoni+0.00on par
Varketili+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zestafoni ↓

Varketili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zestafoni or draw
61%
Zestafoni or Varketili
74%
Draw or Varketili
65%

Winning margin

Zestafoni wins by 2+
16%
Varketili wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zestafoni 1+ goals
73%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
38%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
15%
Varketili 1+ goals
75%
Varketili 2+ goals
41%
Varketili 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zestafoni (draw refunded)
48%
Varketili (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zestafoni at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Varketili away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zestafoni attack 1.27 + Varketili defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Varketili attack 1.59 + Zestafoni defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zestafoni scores more
35%
level
26%
Varketili scores more
39%

Varketili at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Varketili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Zestafoni 2–1 Varketili

Zestafoni beat Varketili 2-1 in Liga 3 on November 29, 2024.