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Varketili vs Zestafoni — Liga 3 2024

Varketili
Varketili
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zestafoni
Zestafoni
6/5/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Varketili64%
×Draw20%
Zestafoni16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varketili
2.17
Zestafoni
1.00

Varketili creates 117% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Varketili
2.26
Zestafoni
0.87

allows per match

Varketili
1.13
Zestafoni
2.07

finishing

Varketili+0.00on par
Zestafoni+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varketili ↓

Zestafoni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Varketili or draw
84%
Varketili or Zestafoni
80%
Draw or Zestafoni
36%

Winning margin

Varketili wins by 2+
40%
Zestafoni wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Varketili 1+ goals
89%
Varketili 2+ goals
64%
Varketili 3+ goals
36%
Zestafoni 1+ goals
63%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
26%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Varketili (draw refunded)
80%
Zestafoni (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varketili at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Zestafoni away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varketili attack 2.26 + Zestafoni defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.17

Zestafoni attack 0.87 + Varketili defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Varketili scores more
64%
level
20%
Zestafoni scores more
16%

Varketili at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Varketili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Varketili 2–1 Zestafoni

Varketili beat Zestafoni 2-1 in Liga 3 on June 5, 2024.