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Zestafoni vs Saburtalo II — Liga 3 2024

Zestafoni
Zestafoni
FT
1 – 1
Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
3/14/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zestafoni29%
×Draw28%
Saburtalo II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zestafoni
1.00
Saburtalo II
1.28

Saburtalo II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

creates per match

Zestafoni
1.27
Saburtalo II
1.36

allows per match

Zestafoni
1.20
Saburtalo II
0.73

finishing

Zestafoni+0.00on par
Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zestafoni ↓

Saburtalo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zestafoni or draw
57%
Zestafoni or Saburtalo II
72%
Draw or Saburtalo II
71%

Winning margin

Zestafoni wins by 2+
11%
Saburtalo II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zestafoni 1+ goals
63%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
26%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
8%
Saburtalo II 1+ goals
72%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
37%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zestafoni (draw refunded)
40%
Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zestafoni at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Saburtalo II away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zestafoni attack 1.27 + Saburtalo II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Saburtalo II attack 1.36 + Zestafoni defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zestafoni scores more
29%
level
28%
Saburtalo II scores more
43%

Saburtalo II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zestafoni vs Saburtalo II

Zestafoni and Saburtalo II drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on March 14, 2024.