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Saburtalo II vs Zestafoni — Liga 3 2024

Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zestafoni
Zestafoni
9/5/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saburtalo II65%
×Draw20%
Zestafoni15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saburtalo II
2.05
Zestafoni
0.85

Saburtalo II creates 141% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Saburtalo II
2.04
Zestafoni
0.87

allows per match

Saburtalo II
0.83
Zestafoni
2.07

finishing

Saburtalo II+0.00on par
Zestafoni+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo II ↓

Zestafoni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Saburtalo II or draw
85%
Saburtalo II or Zestafoni
80%
Draw or Zestafoni
35%

Winning margin

Saburtalo II wins by 2+
41%
Zestafoni wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saburtalo II 1+ goals
87%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
61%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
33%
Zestafoni 1+ goals
57%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
21%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
82%
Zestafoni (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Zestafoni away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo II attack 2.04 + Zestafoni defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.05

Zestafoni attack 0.87 + Saburtalo II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Saburtalo II scores more
65%
level
20%
Zestafoni scores more
15%

Saburtalo II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Saburtalo II 4–0 Zestafoni

Saburtalo II beat Zestafoni 4-0 in Liga 3 on September 5, 2024.