Zestafoni 2–1 Borjomi: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Zestafoni

FT

2 – 1

Borjomi

4/11/2024

Liga 3 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zestafoni55%

×Draw22%

Borjomi23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZestafoniExpected goals in this matchBorjomi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.14

Zestafoni

1.89

Borjomi

1.14

Zestafoni creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.27

creates per match

1.07

1.20

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Zestafoni

1.27

Borjomi

1.07

allows per match

Zestafoni

1.20

Borjomi

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zestafoni+0.00on par

Borjomi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zestafoni ↓

Borjomi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zestafoni or draw

77%

Zestafoni or Borjomi

78%

Draw or Borjomi

45%

Winning margin

Zestafoni wins by 2+

31%

Borjomi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zestafoni 1+ goals

85%

Zestafoni 2+ goals

56%

Zestafoni 3+ goals

29%

Borjomi 1+ goals

68%

Borjomi 2+ goals

32%

Borjomi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zestafoni (draw refunded)

71%

Borjomi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zestafoni at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Borjomi away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zestafoni attack 1.27 + Borjomi defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Borjomi attack 1.07 + Zestafoni defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zestafoni scores more

55%

level

22%

Borjomi scores more

23%

Zestafoni at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zestafoni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff