Borjomi 3–2 Zestafoni: Result & Stats

Borjomi

AET

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zestafoni

6/9/2024

David Kipiani Cup · 2nd RoundKhashuris Stadioni Iveria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Borjomi30%

×Draw21%

Zestafoni49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BorjomiExpected goals in this matchZestafoni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.10

Borjomi

1.60

Zestafoni

2.10

Zestafoni creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

1.80

2.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Borjomi

1.20

Zestafoni

1.80

allows per match

Borjomi

2.40

Zestafoni

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borjomi+0.00on par

Zestafoni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borjomi ↓

Zestafoni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Borjomi or draw

51%

Borjomi or Zestafoni

79%

Draw or Zestafoni

70%

Winning margin

Borjomi wins by 2+

14%

Zestafoni wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Borjomi 1+ goals

80%

Borjomi 2+ goals

47%

Borjomi 3+ goals

22%

Zestafoni 1+ goals

88%

Zestafoni 2+ goals

62%

Zestafoni 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Borjomi (draw refunded)

38%

Zestafoni (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borjomi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Zestafoni away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borjomi attack 1.20 + Zestafoni defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zestafoni attack 1.80 + Borjomi defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Borjomi scores more

30%

level

21%

Zestafoni scores more

49%

Zestafoni at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zestafoni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff