ZESCO United 1–1 Prison Leopards: Result & Stats

ZESCO United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Prison Leopards

8/27/2023

Super League · Round 2Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ZESCO United56%

×Draw26%

Prison Leopards18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZESCO UnitedExpected goals in this matchPrison Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.74

ZESCO United

1.52

Prison Leopards

0.74

ZESCO United creates 105% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

1.65

creates per match

0.78

0.70

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

ZESCO United

1.65

Prison Leopards

0.78

allows per match

ZESCO United

0.70

Prison Leopards

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZESCO United ↓

Prison Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ZESCO United or draw

82%

ZESCO United or Prison Leopards

74%

Draw or Prison Leopards

44%

Winning margin

ZESCO United wins by 2+

29%

Prison Leopards wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

ZESCO United 1+ goals

78%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

45%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

20%

Prison Leopards 1+ goals

52%

Prison Leopards 2+ goals

17%

Prison Leopards 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

75%

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZESCO United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZESCO United attack 1.65 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + ZESCO United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ZESCO United scores more

56%

level

26%

Prison Leopards scores more

18%

ZESCO United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ZESCO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff