Prison Leopards 1–0 ZESCO United: Result & Stats

Prison Leopards

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ZESCO United

1/7/2024

Super League · Round 19Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Prison Leopards36%

×Draw33%

ZESCO United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prison LeopardsExpected goals in this matchZESCO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.84

Prison Leopards

0.94

ZESCO United

0.84

Prison Leopards creates 12% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

1.02

creates per match

1.00

0.68

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Prison Leopards

1.02

ZESCO United

1.00

allows per match

Prison Leopards

0.68

ZESCO United

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

ZESCO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw

69%

Prison Leopards or ZESCO United

67%

Draw or ZESCO United

64%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+

13%

ZESCO United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals

61%

Prison Leopards 2+ goals

24%

Prison Leopards 3+ goals

7%

ZESCO United 1+ goals

57%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

21%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)

54%

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

ZESCO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + ZESCO United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

ZESCO United attack 1.00 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Prison Leopards scores more

36%

level

33%

ZESCO United scores more

31%

Prison Leopards at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff