ZESCO United 1–0 Green Buffaloes: Result & Stats

ZESCO United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Green Buffaloes

4/1/2026

Super League · Round 27Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

ZESCO United52%

×Draw28%

Green Buffaloes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZESCO UnitedExpected goals in this matchGreen Buffaloes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.76

ZESCO United

1.39

Green Buffaloes

0.76

ZESCO United creates 83% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

1.65

creates per match

0.82

0.70

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

ZESCO United

1.65

Green Buffaloes

0.82

allows per match

ZESCO United

0.70

Green Buffaloes

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZESCO United ↓

Green Buffaloes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

ZESCO United or draw

80%

ZESCO United or Green Buffaloes

72%

Draw or Green Buffaloes

48%

Winning margin

ZESCO United wins by 2+

25%

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ZESCO United 1+ goals

75%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

40%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

16%

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals

53%

Green Buffaloes 2+ goals

18%

Green Buffaloes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

72%

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZESCO United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Green Buffaloes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZESCO United attack 1.65 + Green Buffaloes defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.39

Green Buffaloes attack 0.82 + ZESCO United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ZESCO United scores more

52%

level

28%

Green Buffaloes scores more

20%

ZESCO United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ZESCO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff