Green Buffaloes 0–1 ZESCO United: Result & Stats

Green Buffaloes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ZESCO United

3/9/2024

Super League · Round 24Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Green Buffaloes37%

×Draw31%

ZESCO United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green BuffaloesExpected goals in this matchZESCO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.97

Green Buffaloes

1.05

ZESCO United

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

1.26

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Green Buffaloes

1.26

ZESCO United

1.00

allows per match

Green Buffaloes

0.93

ZESCO United

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Buffaloes ↓

ZESCO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Green Buffaloes or draw

67%

Green Buffaloes or ZESCO United

69%

Draw or ZESCO United

63%

Winning margin

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+

14%

ZESCO United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals

65%

Green Buffaloes 2+ goals

28%

Green Buffaloes 3+ goals

9%

ZESCO United 1+ goals

62%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

25%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)

53%

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

ZESCO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + ZESCO United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

ZESCO United attack 1.00 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Green Buffaloes scores more

37%

level

31%

ZESCO United scores more

33%

Green Buffaloes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff