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Zenit vs Krylia Sovetov — Cup 2019

Zenit
Zenit
Preview
16:00
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
11/24/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 6Gazprom Arena
Big match
62%
Zenit
model favours
62%21%17%

Zenit are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zenit62%
×Draw21%
Krylia Sovetov17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
2.04
Krylia Sovetov
0.98

Zenit creates 108% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.39
Krylia Sovetov
1.53

allows per match

Zenit
0.43
Krylia Sovetov
1.68

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
83%
Zenit or Krylia Sovetov
79%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
38%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
38%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
87%
Zenit 2+ goals
60%
Zenit 3+ goals
33%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
62%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
26%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
78%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.39 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.04

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.53 + Zenit defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zenit scores more
62%
level
21%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
17%

Zenit at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Zenit have scored in 12 games running
  • Zenit score first in 67% of matches
  • Zenit win 80% of their home games
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Zenit have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 67% of Zenit’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zenit
DWWDW
Sovetov
LLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zenit host Krylia Sovetov

November 24, 2026: Zenit take on Krylia Sovetov in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zenit host Krylia Sovetov at Gazprom Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.