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Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit — Premier League 2018

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit
Zenit
11/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylia Sovetov28%
×Draw27%
Zenit45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.04
Zenit
1.40

Zenit creates 35% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.31
Zenit
1.64

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.17
Zenit
0.78

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
55%
Krylia Sovetov or Zenit
73%
Draw or Zenit
72%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
10%
Zenit wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
65%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
28%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
9%
Zenit 1+ goals
75%
Zenit 2+ goals
41%
Zenit 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
38%
Zenit (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Zenit defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Zenit attack 1.64 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
28%
level
27%
Zenit scores more
45%

Zenit at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Zenit

Krylia Sovetov and Zenit drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.