Zenit 2–3 Krylia Sovetov: Result & Stats

Zenit

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Krylia Sovetov

N. Alip 72'

M. Glushenkov 4'

I. Sergeev 28', 17'

I. Oleynikov 18'

12/1/2024

Premier League · Round 17Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Zenit66%

×Draw19%

Krylia Sovetov14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZenitExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.89

Zenit

2.17

Krylia Sovetov

0.89

Zenit creates 144% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 105 away

2.53

creates per match

1.02

0.76

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Zenit

2.53

Krylia Sovetov

1.02

allows per match

Zenit

0.76

Krylia Sovetov

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zenit or draw

86%

Zenit or Krylia Sovetov

81%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

34%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+

43%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals

89%

Zenit 2+ goals

64%

Zenit 3+ goals

36%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

59%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

22%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)

82%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.53 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.17

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zenit scores more

66%

level

19%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

14%

Zenit at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

I. Oleynikov

Krylia Sovetov · F

8.7

Match Events

4'

M. Glushenkov↳ A. Mostovoy

17'

I. Sergeev↳ I. Oleynikov

18'

I. Oleynikov↳ I. Dmitriev

28'

I. Sergeev↳ N. Rasskazov

36'

Dominik Oroz

46'

L. Gondou← A. Mostovoy

64'

A. Sobolev← Gustavo Mantuan

64'

Pedro Henrique← Wendel

64'

D. Ivanisenia← B. Garré

64'

V. Shitov← S. Babkin

72'

N. Alip↳ M. Glushenkov

79'

U. Babaev← I. Dmitriev

79'

K. Pechenin← T. Galdames

82'

Artur← M. Glushenkov

82'

A. Erokhin← N. Alip

86'

R. Evgenyev← I. Oleynikov

90+6'

Sergey Pesyakov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZenitKrylia

Overview

76%Possession24%

23Total Shots10

8Corners1

5Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots10

9On Target6

9Off Target3

5Blocked1

19Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

76%Possession24%

796Total Passes253

720Accurate Passes174

90%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

5Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0