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Zenit vs Khimki — Premier League 2018

Zenit
Zenit
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
L. Gondou 22'
4/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Zenit71%
×Draw18%
Khimki12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
2.34
Khimki
0.84

Zenit creates 179% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 61 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.53
Khimki
0.93

allows per match

Zenit
0.76
Khimki
2.15

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
88%
Zenit or Khimki
82%
Draw or Khimki
29%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
47%
Khimki wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
90%
Zenit 2+ goals
67%
Zenit 3+ goals
41%
Khimki 1+ goals
57%
Khimki 2+ goals
21%
Khimki 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
86%
Khimki (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Khimki away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.53 + Khimki defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.34

Khimki attack 0.93 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Zenit scores more
71%
level
18%
Khimki scores more
12%

Zenit at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Luiz HenriqueZenitZenit · M
8.7

Match Events

22'
L. Gondou
46'
P. Golubović← I. Berkovskiy
62'
B. Magomedov← R. Mirzov
71'
N. Alip← L. Gondou
71'
A. Sobolev← A. Mostovoy
78'
A. Rudenko← Álex Corredera
81'
M. Cassierra← M. Glushenkov
84'
Lucas Vera
90+2'
Y. Gorshkov← Wendel
90+2'
S. Zdjelar← Luiz Henrique

Possession

66%Zenit

Shots

20Zenit

Pass accuracy

53%Zenit

Statistics

ZenitKhimki
Overview
66%Possession34%
20Total Shots4
9Corners1
8Fouls20
Shots
20Total Shots4
3On Target2
11Off Target1
6Blocked1
13Inside Box1
7Outside Box3
Passing
66%Possession34%
555Total Passes291
489Accurate Passes228
88%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls20
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Zenit vs Khimki

Zenit beat Khimki 1-0 in Premier League on April 20, 2025.

Goals: L. Gondou (22').

Zenit controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 4.

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in St. Petersburg.