Khimki 1–1 Zenit Saint Petersburg: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zenit Saint Petersburg

R. Mirzov 84'

Wendel 17'

7/15/2022

Premier League · Round 1Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki26%

×Draw26%

Zenit Saint Petersburg48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchZenit Saint Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.47

Khimki

1.00

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.47

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

1.23

creates per match

1.64

1.30

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Khimki

1.23

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.64

allows per match

Khimki

1.30

Zenit Saint Petersburg

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

52%

Khimki or Zenit Saint Petersburg

74%

Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg

74%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

9%

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

63%

Khimki 2+ goals

26%

Khimki 3+ goals

8%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals

77%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals

43%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

35%

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.64 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khimki scores more

26%

level

26%

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more

48%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Lomovitskiy

Khimki · F

7.7

Match Events

17'

Wendel↳ Claudinho

44'

Kirill Bozhenov

61'

A. Zuev← K. Bozhenov

65'

Z. Bakaev← Claudinho

66'

M. Cassierra← I. Sergeev

67'

Aleksei Sutormin

71'

I. Kamyshev← A. Cherny

71'

A. Dolgov← A. Rudenko

75'

A. Erokhin← A. Sutormin

80'

N. Glavčić← D. Glushakov

80'

R. Mirzov← A. Lomovitskiy

82'

A. Mostovoy← Malcom

82'

D. Krugovoy← Wendel

84'

R. Mirzov↳ A. Dolgov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KhimkiZenit

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots7

2Corners8

8Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked1

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

355Total Passes705

269Accurate Passes610

76%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0