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Zenit U20 vs UOR №5 U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Zenit U20
Zenit U20
FT
2 – 0
UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
9/23/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 3Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zenit U2066%
×Draw18%
UOR №5 U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit U20
2.37
UOR №5 U20
1.05

Zenit U20 creates 126% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 65 away

creates per match

Zenit U20
2.10
UOR №5 U20
1.40

allows per match

Zenit U20
0.71
UOR №5 U20
2.63

finishing

Zenit U20+0.00on par
UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U20 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zenit U20 or draw
85%
Zenit U20 or UOR №5 U20
82%
Draw or UOR №5 U20
34%

Winning margin

Zenit U20 wins by 2+
44%
UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zenit U20 1+ goals
91%
Zenit U20 2+ goals
68%
Zenit U20 3+ goals
42%
UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
65%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
28%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zenit U20 (draw refunded)
81%
UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U20 attack 2.10 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.37

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Zenit U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zenit U20 scores more
66%
level
18%
UOR №5 U20 scores more
15%

Zenit U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zenit U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Zenit U20 2–0 UOR №5 U20

Zenit U20 beat UOR №5 U20 2-0 in Youth Championship on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.