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UOR №5 U20 vs Zenit U20 — Youth Championship 2026

UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
FT
0 – 5
Zenit U20
Zenit U20
12/2/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 12Stadion Master-Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UOR №5 U2021%
×Draw20%
Zenit U2059%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UOR №5 U20
1.29
Zenit U20
2.25

Zenit U20 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

creates per match

UOR №5 U20
1.26
Zenit U20
2.16

allows per match

UOR №5 U20
2.35
Zenit U20
1.32

finishing

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par
Zenit U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UOR №5 U20 ↓

Zenit U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

UOR №5 U20 or draw
41%
UOR №5 U20 or Zenit U20
80%
Draw or Zenit U20
79%

Winning margin

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
9%
Zenit U20 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
72%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
37%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
14%
Zenit U20 1+ goals
89%
Zenit U20 2+ goals
65%
Zenit U20 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
27%
Zenit U20 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

Zenit U20 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Zenit U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zenit U20 attack 2.16 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

UOR №5 U20 scores more
21%
level
20%
Zenit U20 scores more
59%

Zenit U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zenit U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UOR №5 U20 vs Zenit U20

Zenit U20 beat UOR №5 U20 5-0 in Youth Championship on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Master-Saturn in Yegoryevsk.