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Zenit U20 vs Dinamo Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Zenit U20
Zenit U20
FT
1 – 0
Dinamo Moskva U20
Dinamo Moskva U20
12/5/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 19Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zenit U2050%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Moskva U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit U20
1.70
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.16

Zenit U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Zenit U20
2.10
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.60

allows per match

Zenit U20
0.71
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.30

finishing

Zenit U20+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U20 ↓

Dinamo Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zenit U20 or draw
74%
Zenit U20 or Dinamo Moskva U20
76%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva U20
50%

Winning margin

Zenit U20 wins by 2+
27%
Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zenit U20 1+ goals
82%
Zenit U20 2+ goals
51%
Zenit U20 3+ goals
24%
Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zenit U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Dinamo Moskva U20 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U20 attack 2.10 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.70

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 1.60 + Zenit U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zenit U20 scores more
50%
level
24%
Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more
26%

Zenit U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zenit U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Zenit U20 1–0 Dinamo Moskva U20

Zenit U20 beat Dinamo Moskva U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on December 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.