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Dinamo Moskva U20 vs Zenit U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Dinamo Moskva U20
Dinamo Moskva U20
FT
3 – 0
Zenit U20
Zenit U20
8/9/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 5UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U2048%
×Draw21%
Zenit U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva U20
2.14
Zenit U20
1.71

Dinamo Moskva U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U20
2.95
Zenit U20
2.16

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U20
1.25
Zenit U20
1.32

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par
Zenit U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U20 ↓

Zenit U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U20 or draw
69%
Dinamo Moskva U20 or Zenit U20
79%
Draw or Zenit U20
52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+
28%
Zenit U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals
63%
Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals
36%
Zenit U20 1+ goals
82%
Zenit U20 2+ goals
51%
Zenit U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Zenit U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Zenit U20 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 2.95 + Zenit U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.14

Zenit U20 attack 2.16 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more
48%
level
21%
Zenit U20 scores more
31%

Dinamo Moskva U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Dinamo Moskva U20 3–0 Zenit U20

Dinamo Moskva U20 beat Zenit U20 3-0 in Youth Championship on August 9, 2019.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.