Zenit U19 5–3 Torpedo Moskva U19: Result & Stats

Zenit U19

FT

5 – 3

HT: 5 – 1

Torpedo Moskva U19

9/16/2022

Youth Championship · Round 11Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Zenit U1969%

×Draw18%

Torpedo Moskva U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit U19Expected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.89

Zenit U19

2.33

Torpedo Moskva U19

0.89

Zenit U19 creates 162% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 14 away

2.81

creates per match

0.64

1.13

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Zenit U19

2.81

Torpedo Moskva U19

0.64

allows per match

Zenit U19

1.13

Torpedo Moskva U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit U19+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U19 ↓

Torpedo Moskva U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Zenit U19 or draw

87%

Zenit U19 or Torpedo Moskva U19

82%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva U19

31%

Winning margin

Zenit U19 wins by 2+

46%

Torpedo Moskva U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zenit U19 1+ goals

90%

Zenit U19 2+ goals

67%

Zenit U19 3+ goals

41%

Torpedo Moskva U19 1+ goals

59%

Torpedo Moskva U19 2+ goals

22%

Torpedo Moskva U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Torpedo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U19 at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.13 · 80 matches

Torpedo Moskva U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U19 attack 2.81 + Torpedo Moskva U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.33

Torpedo Moskva U19 attack 0.64 + Zenit U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Zenit U19 scores more

69%

level

18%

Torpedo Moskva U19 scores more

13%

Zenit U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff