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Torpedo Moskva U19 vs Zenit U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Torpedo Moskva U19
Torpedo Moskva U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zenit U19
Zenit U19
A. Baranovsky 57'
I. Kozlov 25'
7/22/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 2Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Moskva U1926%
×Draw23%
Zenit U1951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.22
Zenit U19
1.79

Zenit U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 78 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.21
Zenit U19
2.23

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva U19
1.36
Zenit U19
1.23

finishing

Torpedo Moskva U19+0.00on par
Zenit U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva U19 ↓

Zenit U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva U19 or draw
49%
Torpedo Moskva U19 or Zenit U19
77%
Draw or Zenit U19
74%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva U19 wins by 2+
11%
Zenit U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva U19 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva U19 2+ goals
34%
Torpedo Moskva U19 3+ goals
12%
Zenit U19 1+ goals
83%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
53%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
34%
Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Zenit U19 away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva U19 attack 1.21 + Zenit U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Zenit U19 attack 2.23 + Torpedo Moskva U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torpedo Moskva U19 scores more
26%
level
23%
Zenit U19 scores more
51%

Zenit U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
I. Kozlov
57'
A. Baranovsky

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Torpedo Moskva U19 0–2 Zenit U19

Zenit U19 beat Torpedo Moskva U19 2-0 in Youth Championship on July 22, 2022.

Goals: I. Kozlov (25'), A. Baranovsky (57').

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.