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Zenit U19 vs Orenburg U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Zenit U19
Zenit U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
5/3/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 8Akademiya Zenit pole 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Zenit U1974%
×Draw15%
Orenburg U1911%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit U19
2.74
Orenburg U19
0.96

Zenit U19 creates 185% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 38 away

creates per match

Zenit U19
2.81
Orenburg U19
0.79

allows per match

Zenit U19
1.13
Orenburg U19
2.66

finishing

Zenit U19+0.00on par
Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zenit U19 or draw
89%
Zenit U19 or Orenburg U19
85%
Draw or Orenburg U19
26%

Winning margin

Zenit U19 wins by 2+
53%
Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zenit U19 1+ goals
93%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
75%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
51%
Orenburg U19 1+ goals
62%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
25%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
87%
Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U19 at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.13 · 80 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U19 attack 2.81 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.74

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Zenit U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Zenit U19 scores more
74%
level
15%
Orenburg U19 scores more
11%

Zenit U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit U19 vs Orenburg U19

Zenit U19 beat Orenburg U19 2-1 in Youth Championship on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Akademiya Zenit pole 2 in St. Petersburg.