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Orenburg U19 vs Zenit U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Zenit U19
Zenit U19
8/9/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 18Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Orenburg U1915%
×Draw19%
Zenit U1967%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg U19
1.00
Zenit U19
2.32

Zenit U19 creates 132% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 78 away

creates per match

Orenburg U19
0.78
Zenit U19
2.23

allows per match

Orenburg U19
2.41
Zenit U19
1.23

finishing

Orenburg U19+0.00on par
Zenit U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U19 ↓

Zenit U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Orenburg U19 or draw
33%
Orenburg U19 or Zenit U19
81%
Draw or Zenit U19
85%

Winning margin

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
5%
Zenit U19 wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Orenburg U19 1+ goals
63%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
26%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
8%
Zenit U19 1+ goals
90%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
67%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
18%
Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U19 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 37 matches

Zenit U19 away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U19 attack 0.78 + Zenit U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.00

Zenit U19 attack 2.23 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Orenburg U19 scores more
15%
level
19%
Zenit U19 scores more
67%

Zenit U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Orenburg U19 0–4 Zenit U19

Zenit U19 beat Orenburg U19 4-0 in Youth Championship on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.