Zenit U19 3–1 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Zenit U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Olympique Lyonnais U19

K. Kravtsov 46'

K. Kosarev 37'

D. Shamkin 19'

F. da Silva 90+2'

11/27/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zenit U1925%

×Draw20%

Olympique Lyonnais U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit U19Expected goals in this matchOlympique Lyonnais U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.35

Zenit U19

1.56

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.35

Olympique Lyonnais U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

2.20

2.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Zenit U19

1.33

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.20

allows per match

Zenit U19

2.50

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit U19+0.00on par

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U19 ↓

Olympique Lyonnais U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Zenit U19 or draw

45%

Zenit U19 or Olympique Lyonnais U19

80%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais U19

75%

Winning margin

Zenit U19 wins by 2+

12%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Zenit U19 1+ goals

79%

Zenit U19 2+ goals

46%

Zenit U19 3+ goals

21%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

90%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

68%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Olympique Lyonnais U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U19 attack 1.33 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.20 + Zenit U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zenit U19 scores more

25%

level

20%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

55%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

D. Shamkin↳ D. Prokhin

37'

K. Kosarev

45'

D. Knyazev← D. Shamkin

46'

M. Mbenga← A. Gouiri

46'

K. Kravtsov

53'

K. Schetinin

55'

B. Barcola← H. Tebily

61'

N. Simdyankin← R. Nogtev

69'

69'

76'

76'

80'

P. Kalulu Kyatengwa

82'

I. Bychkov← M. Smirnov

82'

G. Karginov← V. Simutenkov

82'

F. da Silva← C. Augarreau

90+2'

F. da Silva

Zenit

Olympique

1

Margueron

4

Bard

2

Kalulu

3

▼

Deyonge

5

Diomande

8

▼

Augarreau

9

▼

Gouiri

6

Thomas

10

Coly

7

▼

Tebily

11

▼

Wissa

71

Odoevskiy

87

A

Prokhin

50

Molchan

40

Vakhaniya

63

▼

Smirnov

81

Shchetini

37

▼

Simutenko

58

▼

Nogtev

64

⚽

Kravtsov

47

⚽

Kosarev

92

⚽

▼

Shamkin

Manager: K. Zyryanov

45'▲D. Knyazev←▼D. Shamkin

61'▲N. Simdyankin←▼R. Nogtev

82'▲I. Bychkov←▼M. Smirnov

82'▲G. Karginov←▼V. Simutenkov

Zenit U19 substitutes

60Knyazev46Simdyankin83Bychkov79Karginov57Zakharov86Rybikov39Khubulov

Manager: E. Hély

46'▲M. Mbenga←▼A. Gouiri

55'▲B. Barcola←▼H. Tebily

69'▲D. Dib←▼H. Deyonge

69'▲M. Gusto←▼E. Wissa

82'▲F. da Silva←▼C. Augarreau

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

14Mbenga17Barcola18Dib12Gusto15Silva16Ousmane13Pontet

UEFA Youth League: Zenit U19 3–1 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Zenit U19 beat Olympique Lyonnais U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 27, 2019.

Goals: D. Shamkin (19'), K. Kosarev (37'), K. Kravtsov (46'), F. da Silva (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.

Zenit U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Zenit U19 3–1 Olympique Lyonnais U19