Olympique Lyonnais U19 4–2 Zenit U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Zenit U19

E. Coly 90+4' (pen)

T. Thomas 74'

Y. Soumaré 55'

M. Cherki 48'

K. Kosarev 90+1'

M. Bachinskiy 45+3'

9/17/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Lyonnais U1957%

×Draw20%

Zenit U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique Lyonnais U19Expected goals in this matchZenit U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.42

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.33

Zenit U19

1.42

Olympique Lyonnais U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

1.50

1.33

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.33

Zenit U19

1.50

allows per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.33

Zenit U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Zenit U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Lyonnais U19 ↓

Zenit U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or draw

77%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or Zenit U19

80%

Draw or Zenit U19

43%

Winning margin

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

36%

Zenit U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

90%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

67%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

41%

Zenit U19 1+ goals

76%

Zenit U19 2+ goals

41%

Zenit U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Zenit U19 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.33 + Zenit U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Zenit U19 attack 1.50 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Zenit U19 scores more

23%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

M. Bachinskiy↳ V. Simutenkov

46'

D. Varichev← V. Simutenkov

48'

M. Cherki↳ Y. Soumaré

55'

Y. Soumaré↳ B. Barcola

60'

R. Nogtev← N. Simdyankin

63'

E. Wissa← B. Barcola

64'

A. Sandrachuk← M. Smirnov

74'

T. Thomas↳ E. Wissa

75'

M. Gusto← A. Minolien

90'

M. Mbenga← M. Cherki

90+1'

K. Kosarev↳ G. Karginov

90+4'

E. ColyPenalty

Olympique

Zenit

86

94

40

57

63

▼

Smirnov

37

A

▼

Simutenko

79

A

Karginov

39

Khubulov

47

⚽

Kosarev

65

⚽

Bachinski

46

▼

1

3

5

2

▼

Minolien

4

Diomande

8

Augarreau

7

⚽A

Soumaré

6

⚽

Thomas

10

⚽

▼

Cherki

9

⚽

Coly

11

A

▼

Barcola

Manager: E. Hély

63'▲E. Wissa←▼B. Barcola

75'▲M. Gusto←▼A. Minolien

90'▲M. Mbenga←▼M. Cherki

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

17Wissa13Gusto15Mbenga16Ousmane18Dib14Benaissa12Deyonge

Manager: K. Zyryanov

46'▲D. Varichev←▼V. Simutenkov

60'▲R. Nogtev←▼N. Simdyankin

64'▲A. Sandrachuk←▼M. Smirnov

Zenit U19 substitutes

42Varichev58Nogtev53Sandrachuk56Vorobyev82Kukushkin60Knyazev

Match Recap: Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Zenit U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19 beat Zenit U19 4-2 in UEFA Youth League on September 17, 2019.

Goals: M. Bachinskiy (45+3'), M. Cherki (48'), Y. Soumaré (55'), T. Thomas (74'), K. Kosarev (90+1'), E. Coly (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu in Décines-Charpieu.

Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Zenit U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Zenit U19