Zenit U19 3–2 Malmö FF U19: Result & Stats

Zenit U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Malmö FF U19

A. Zigangirov 90+1'

I. Rodionov 79'

R. Mikhaylovskiy 43'

I. Bjerkebo 89'

M. Björkqvist 11'

9/29/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zenit U1941%

×Draw20%

Malmö FF U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit U19Expected goals in this matchMalmö FF U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

2.13

Zenit U19

2.17

Malmö FF U19

2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

1.75

2.50

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Zenit U19

1.33

Malmö FF U19

1.75

allows per match

Zenit U19

2.50

Malmö FF U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit U19+0.00on par

Malmö FF U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U19 ↓

Malmö FF U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Zenit U19 or draw

61%

Zenit U19 or Malmö FF U19

80%

Draw or Malmö FF U19

59%

Winning margin

Zenit U19 wins by 2+

23%

Malmö FF U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Zenit U19 1+ goals

89%

Zenit U19 2+ goals

64%

Zenit U19 3+ goals

36%

Malmö FF U19 1+ goals

88%

Malmö FF U19 2+ goals

63%

Malmö FF U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Malmö FF U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Malmö FF U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U19 attack 1.33 + Malmö FF U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Malmö FF U19 attack 1.75 + Zenit U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zenit U19 scores more

41%

level

20%

Malmö FF U19 scores more

39%

Zenit U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Björkqvist↳ M. Widell

41'

A. Maryanov

43'

R. Mikhaylovskiy

58'

I. Rodionov← R. Mikhaylovskiy

58'

A. Emeljanov← A. Marjanov

66'

I. Bjerkebo← H. Larsson

70'

A. Belokhonov← S. Kotov

73'

M. Bjorkqvist

79'

I. Rodionov

80'

E. Panteleychuk← R. Khayloev

84'

A. Avdic← S. Burakovsky

89'

I. Bjerkebo↳ M. Widell

90+3'

M. Troshchenkov

90+5'

A. Belokhonov

90+1'

A. Zigangirov↳ V. Saus

Zenit

Malmö

30

4

2

13

5

22

⚽

Björkqvis

6

Karlin

8

▼

Larsson

10

Bolin

11

▼

Burakovsk

14

A

91

94

53

73

▼

Marjanov

34

Troshchen

48

⚽

Zigangiro

35

A

Saus

75

▼

Khayloev

85

Kuznetsov

76

⚽

▼

Mikhaylov

38

▼

Kotov

Manager: K. Zyryanov

58'▲I. Rodionov←▼R. Mikhaylovskiy

58'▲A. Emeljanov←▼A. Marjanov

70'▲A. Belokhonov←▼S. Kotov

80'▲E. Panteleychuk←▼R. Khayloev

Zenit U19 substitutes

69Rodionov50Emeljanov83Belokhonov65Panteleychuk56Khvastukhin36Bykov95Korolev

Manager: M. Westerberg

66'▲I. Bjerkebo←▼H. Larsson

84'▲A. Avdic←▼S. Burakovsky

Malmö FF U19 substitutes

9Bjerkebo7Avdic26Hamawand17Adjei1Andersson20Salievski21Braendshöi

Match Recap: Zenit U19 vs Malmö FF U19

Zenit U19 beat Malmö FF U19 3-2 in UEFA Youth League on September 29, 2021.

Goals: M. Björkqvist (11'), R. Mikhaylovskiy (43'), I. Rodionov (79'), I. Bjerkebo (89'), A. Zigangirov (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.

Zenit U19 vs Malmö FF U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zenit U19 vs Malmö FF U19