Malmö FF U19 1–3 Zenit U19: Result & Stats

Malmö FF U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit U19

A. Karlin 78' (pen)

K. Khvastukhin 87'

R. Mikhaylovskiy 66'

A. Sandrachuk 60'

11/23/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Malmö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malmö FF U1925%

×Draw19%

Zenit U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmö FF U19Expected goals in this matchZenit U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.50

Malmö FF U19

1.67

Zenit U19

2.50

Zenit U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

3.50

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Malmö FF U19

1.00

Zenit U19

1.50

allows per match

Malmö FF U19

3.50

Zenit U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmö FF U19+0.00on par

Zenit U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmö FF U19 ↓

Zenit U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Malmö FF U19 or draw

45%

Malmö FF U19 or Zenit U19

81%

Draw or Zenit U19

75%

Winning margin

Malmö FF U19 wins by 2+

12%

Zenit U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Malmö FF U19 1+ goals

81%

Malmö FF U19 2+ goals

50%

Malmö FF U19 3+ goals

23%

Zenit U19 1+ goals

92%

Zenit U19 2+ goals

71%

Zenit U19 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Malmö FF U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmö FF U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Zenit U19 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmö FF U19 attack 1.00 + Zenit U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zenit U19 attack 1.50 + Malmö FF U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Malmö FF U19 scores more

25%

level

19%

Zenit U19 scores more

55%

Zenit U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

E. Kim

60'

A. Sandrachuk↳ E. Kim

62'

S. Kotov← A. Belokhonov

62'

R. Mikhaylovskiy← V. Saus

66'

R. Mikhaylovskiy↳ E. Kim

69'

P. Malky← H. Bolin

76'

A. Kasimov← D. Vasiljev

78'

A. KarlinPenalty

82'

K. Khvastukhin← A. Marjanov

83'

R. Adjei← P. Strömberg

83'

E. Emeljanov← D. Bykov

87'

90+3'

90+3'

90+3'

90+3'

Malmö

Zenit

95

Korolev

94

Khotulev

53

⚽

Sandrachu

87

▼

Vasiljev

73

▼

Marjanov

36

▼

Bykov

48

Zigangiro

72

A

Kim

35

▼

Saus

85

Kuznetsov

83

▼

30

4

2

13

▼

Strömberg

5

Lindman

6

⚽

Karlin

8

Larsson

10

▼

7

9

14

Manager: M. Westerberg

69'▲P. Malky←▼H. Bolin

83'▲R. Adjei←▼P. Strömberg

Malmö FF U19 substitutes

15Malky25Adjei16Eriksson20Lindfors21Braendshöi26Hamawand1Andersson

Manager: K. Zyryanov

62'▲S. Kotov←▼A. Belokhonov

62'▲R. Mikhaylovskiy←▼V. Saus

76'▲A. Kasimov←▼D. Vasiljev

82'▲K. Khvastukhin←▼A. Marjanov

83'▲E. Emeljanov←▼D. Bykov

Zenit U19 substitutes

38Kotov76Mikhaylovskiy43Kasimov56Khvastukhin51Emeljanov88Pavlov84Kovrizhnikov

UEFA Youth League: Malmö FF U19 1–3 Zenit U19

Zenit U19 beat Malmö FF U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 23, 2021.

Goals: A. Sandrachuk (60'), R. Mikhaylovskiy (66'), A. Karlin (78' pen), K. Khvastukhin (87').

The match was played at Malmö IP in Malmö.

Malmö FF U19 vs Zenit U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Malmö FF U19 1–3 Zenit U19