Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zenit U19 vs Fakel U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Zenit U19
Zenit U19
FT
7 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fakel U19
Fakel U19
5/16/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 10Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Zenit U1963%
×Draw19%
Fakel U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit U19
2.28
Fakel U19
1.13

Zenit U19 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zenit U19
2.81
Fakel U19
1.12

allows per match

Zenit U19
1.13
Fakel U19
1.75

finishing

Zenit U19+0.00on par
Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U19 ↓

Fakel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zenit U19 or draw
82%
Zenit U19 or Fakel U19
81%
Draw or Fakel U19
37%

Winning margin

Zenit U19 wins by 2+
40%
Fakel U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zenit U19 1+ goals
90%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
66%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
39%
Fakel U19 1+ goals
68%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
31%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U19 at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.13 · 80 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U19 attack 2.81 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.28

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + Zenit U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zenit U19 scores more
63%
level
19%
Fakel U19 scores more
18%

Zenit U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Zenit U19 7–1 Fakel U19

Zenit U19 beat Fakel U19 7-1 in Youth Championship on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.