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Fakel U19 vs Zenit U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Fakel U19
Fakel U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Zenit U19
Zenit U19
10/3/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fakel U1930%
×Draw23%
Zenit U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel U19
1.35
Zenit U19
1.74

Zenit U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 78 away

creates per match

Fakel U19
1.47
Zenit U19
2.23

allows per match

Fakel U19
1.25
Zenit U19
1.23

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par
Zenit U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

Zenit U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw
53%
Fakel U19 or Zenit U19
77%
Draw or Zenit U19
70%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+
13%
Zenit U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals
74%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
39%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
15%
Zenit U19 1+ goals
82%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
52%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Zenit U19 away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + Zenit U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zenit U19 attack 2.23 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fakel U19 scores more
30%
level
23%
Zenit U19 scores more
47%

Zenit U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Fakel U19 1–4 Zenit U19

Zenit U19 beat Fakel U19 4-1 in Youth Championship on October 3, 2025.