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Zenit U19 vs Dinamo Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Zenit U19
Zenit U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Moskva U19
Dinamo Moskva U19
6/21/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 11Akademiya Zenit pole 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Zenit U1959%
×Draw19%
Dinamo Moskva U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit U19
2.35
Dinamo Moskva U19
1.36

Zenit U19 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 82 away

creates per match

Zenit U19
2.81
Dinamo Moskva U19
1.59

allows per match

Zenit U19
1.13
Dinamo Moskva U19
1.89

finishing

Zenit U19+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U19 ↓

Dinamo Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Zenit U19 or draw
79%
Zenit U19 or Dinamo Moskva U19
81%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva U19
41%

Winning margin

Zenit U19 wins by 2+
37%
Dinamo Moskva U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zenit U19 1+ goals
90%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
68%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
41%
Dinamo Moskva U19 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Moskva U19 2+ goals
39%
Dinamo Moskva U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Dinamo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U19 at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.13 · 80 matches

Dinamo Moskva U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U19 attack 2.81 + Dinamo Moskva U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.35

Dinamo Moskva U19 attack 1.59 + Zenit U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zenit U19 scores more
59%
level
19%
Dinamo Moskva U19 scores more
21%

Zenit U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Zenit U19 1–3 Dinamo Moskva U19

Dinamo Moskva U19 beat Zenit U19 3-1 in Youth Championship on June 21, 2024.

The match was played at Akademiya Zenit pole 5 in St. Petersburg.