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Dinamo Moskva U19 vs Zenit U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Dinamo Moskva U19
Dinamo Moskva U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zenit U19
Zenit U19
3/15/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 2UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U1931%
×Draw23%
Zenit U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva U19
1.39
Zenit U19
1.75

Zenit U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 78 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U19
1.54
Zenit U19
2.23

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U19
1.26
Zenit U19
1.23

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U19+0.00on par
Zenit U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U19 ↓

Zenit U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U19 or draw
54%
Dinamo Moskva U19 or Zenit U19
77%
Draw or Zenit U19
69%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U19 wins by 2+
14%
Zenit U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U19 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Moskva U19 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Moskva U19 3+ goals
16%
Zenit U19 1+ goals
83%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
52%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Zenit U19 away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U19 attack 1.54 + Zenit U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zenit U19 attack 2.23 + Dinamo Moskva U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Moskva U19 scores more
31%
level
23%
Zenit U19 scores more
46%

Zenit U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Dinamo Moskva U19 1–2 Zenit U19

Zenit U19 beat Dinamo Moskva U19 2-1 in Youth Championship on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.