Zenit U19 1–2 Arsenal Tula U20: Result & Stats

Zenit U19

FT

1 – 2

Arsenal Tula U20

10/3/2021

Youth Championship · Round 11Akademiya Zenit pole 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Zenit U1957%

×Draw20%

Arsenal Tula U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit U19Expected goals in this matchArsenal Tula U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.31

Zenit U19

2.20

Arsenal Tula U20

1.31

Zenit U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 39 away

2.81

creates per match

1.49

1.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zenit U19

2.81

Arsenal Tula U20

1.49

allows per match

Zenit U19

1.13

Arsenal Tula U20

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit U19+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U19 ↓

Arsenal Tula U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Zenit U19 or draw

78%

Zenit U19 or Arsenal Tula U20

80%

Draw or Arsenal Tula U20

43%

Winning margin

Zenit U19 wins by 2+

35%

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zenit U19 1+ goals

89%

Zenit U19 2+ goals

64%

Zenit U19 3+ goals

37%

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals

73%

Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals

38%

Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U19 at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.13 · 80 matches

Arsenal Tula U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U19 attack 2.81 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.20

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 1.49 + Zenit U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zenit U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more

22%

Zenit U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff