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Arsenal Tula U20 vs Zenit U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
FT
2 – 3
Zenit U19
Zenit U19
M. Kaynov 53'
K. Kangwa 18'
R. Khayloev 75'
A. Belokhonov 22'
A. Maryanov 4'
8/6/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 4Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2033%
×Draw22%
Zenit U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula U20
1.66
Zenit U19
1.94

Zenit U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 78 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20
2.08
Zenit U19
2.23

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20
1.64
Zenit U19
1.23

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par
Zenit U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Zenit U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw
55%
Arsenal Tula U20 or Zenit U19
78%
Draw or Zenit U19
67%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
16%
Zenit U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
81%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
49%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
23%
Zenit U19 1+ goals
86%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
58%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
43%
Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Zenit U19 away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Zenit U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.66

Zenit U19 attack 2.23 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
33%
level
22%
Zenit U19 scores more
45%

Zenit U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. Maryanov
18'
K. Kangwa
22'
A. Belokhonov
53'
M. Kaynov
75'
R. Khayloev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Arsenal Tula U20 2–3 Zenit U19

Zenit U19 beat Arsenal Tula U20 3-2 in Youth Championship on August 6, 2021.

Goals: A. Maryanov (4'), K. Kangwa (18'), A. Belokhonov (22'), M. Kaynov (53'), R. Khayloev (75').

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.