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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Slavia Praha — UEFA Europa League 2018

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
A. Kokorin 80'
10/4/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Krestovsky Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg44%
×Draw24%
Slavia Praha33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.68
Slavia Praha
1.43

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.86
Slavia Praha
1.57

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.29
Slavia Praha
1.50

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
67%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Slavia Praha
76%
Draw or Slavia Praha
56%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
23%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
81%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
50%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
24%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
76%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
42%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
57%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.86 + Slavia Praha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Slavia Praha attack 1.57 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
44%
level
24%
Slavia Praha scores more
33%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
A. LunevZenit Saint PetersburgZenit Saint Petersburg · G
9.5

Match Events

36'
Tomáš Souček
53'
A. Băluță← J. Matoušek
60'
Alexandru Băluță
63'
A. Kokorin← S. Driussi
64'
D. Kuzyaev← R. Mak
80'
A. Kokorin↳ L. Paredes
83'
M. Frydrych← V. Coufal
90'
Luís Neto
90+3'
A. Zabolotnyi← E. Nabiullin
90'
S. Deli← I. Traore

Possession

46%Zenit

Shots

5Zenit

Pass accuracy

49%Zenit

Statistics

ZenitSlavia
Overview
46%Possession54%
5Total Shots27
2Corners13
7Fouls14
Shots
5Total Shots27
2On Target12
2Off Target10
1Blocked5
3Inside Box12
2Outside Box15
Passing
46%Possession54%
419Total Passes474
329Accurate Passes393
79%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
11Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
7Offsides2

Match Recap: Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Slavia Praha

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Slavia Praha 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 4, 2018.

Goals: A. Kokorin (80').

Slavia Praha controlled possession (54%) and registered 27 shots to 5.

The match was played at Krestovsky Stadium in Saint Petersburg.