Slavia Praha 2–0 Zenit Saint Petersburg

Slavia Praha

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Zenit Saint Petersburg

M. Stoch 41'

J. Zmrhal 32'

12/13/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6Eden Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slavia Praha56%

×Draw27%

Zenit Saint Petersburg17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchZenit Saint Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.68

Slavia Praha

1.46

Zenit Saint Petersburg

0.68

Slavia Praha creates 115% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.29

creates per match

0.50

0.86

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Slavia Praha

1.29

Zenit Saint Petersburg

0.50

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.86

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

83%

Slavia Praha or Zenit Saint Petersburg

73%

Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg

44%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

29%

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

77%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

43%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

18%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals

49%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals

15%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

76%

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 1.29 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 0.50 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

56%

level

27%

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more

17%

Slavia Praha at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Hušbauer

Slavia Praha · M

8.0

Match Events

25'

Milan Škoda

32'

J. Zmrhal↳ J. Hušbauer

36'

Elmir Nabiullin

41'

M. Stoch↳ V. Coufal

46'

S. Driussi← A. Zabolotnyi

46'

R. Mak← E. Nabiullin

67'

Hernani

73'

D. Kuzyaev← O. Shatov

85'

I. Traore← M. Škoda

86'

Miroslav Stoch

90+2'

A. Băluță← J. Zelený

90'

M. Frydrych← M. Stoch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaZenit

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots5

11Corners2

15Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots5

4On Target0

5Off Target1

7Blocked4

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

359Total Passes449

271Accurate Passes360

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0