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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs PFC Sochi — Premier League 2018

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
10/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg64%
×Draw20%
PFC Sochi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.09
PFC Sochi
0.92

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 127% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 89 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.53
PFC Sochi
1.08

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.76
PFC Sochi
1.66

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
84%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or PFC Sochi
80%
Draw or PFC Sochi
36%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
40%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
88%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
62%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
34%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
60%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
23%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
80%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.53 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.09

PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
64%
level
20%
PFC Sochi scores more
16%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Zenit Saint Petersburg 1–2 PFC Sochi

PFC Sochi beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 2-1 in Premier League on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.