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FC Sochi vs Zenit — Premier League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Zenit
Zenit
10/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Fisht Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Sochi32%
×Draw26%
Zenit42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.23
Zenit
1.44

Zenit creates 17% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 120 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.69
Zenit
1.64

allows per match

FC Sochi
1.24
Zenit
0.78

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
58%
FC Sochi or Zenit
74%
Draw or Zenit
68%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
14%
Zenit wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
71%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
35%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
13%
Zenit 1+ goals
76%
Zenit 2+ goals
42%
Zenit 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
43%
Zenit (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.69 + Zenit defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zenit attack 1.64 + FC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Sochi scores more
32%
level
26%
Zenit scores more
42%

Zenit at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Sochi vs Zenit

Zenit beat FC Sochi 3-0 in Premier League on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Sochi.