PFC Sochi 1–1 Zenit Saint Petersburg

PFC Sochi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zenit Saint Petersburg

A. Yusupov 1'

Gustavo Mantuan 50'

5/27/2023

Premier League · Round 29Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

PFC Sochi32%

×Draw26%

Zenit Saint Petersburg42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchZenit Saint Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.44

PFC Sochi

1.23

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.44

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 120 away

1.69

creates per match

1.64

1.24

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.69

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.64

allows per match

PFC Sochi

1.24

Zenit Saint Petersburg

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

58%

PFC Sochi or Zenit Saint Petersburg

74%

Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg

68%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

14%

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

71%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

35%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

13%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals

76%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals

42%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

43%

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.69 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.64 + PFC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

32%

level

26%

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more

42%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

D. Kuzyaev

Zenit Saint Petersburg · M

7.7

Match Events

1'

A. Yusupov↳ N. Burmistrov

13'

Sergey Terekhov

46'

T. Shipunov← G. Melkadze

46'

V. Karavaev← A. Adamov

50'

Gustavo Mantuan

58'

A. Batyrev← K. Kravtsov

64'

Joãozinho← A. Yusupov

65'

A. Erokhin← I. Sergeev

65'

A. Sutormin← A. Mostovoy

73'

A. Baranovskiy← Gustavo Mantuan

84'

Joãozinho

85'

V. Angban← T. Margasov

90+1'

D. Kozlov← M. Cassierra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PFCZenit

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots16

2Corners9

10Fouls1

Shots

8Total Shots16

4On Target5

2Off Target7

2Blocked4

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

434Total Passes654

346Accurate Passes548

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls1

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides4