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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Nizhny Novgorod — Premier League 2018

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
12/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg68%
×Draw19%
Nizhny Novgorod13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.10
Nizhny Novgorod
0.77

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 173% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 78 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.53
Nizhny Novgorod
0.78

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.76
Nizhny Novgorod
1.68

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
87%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Nizhny Novgorod
81%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
32%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
43%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
88%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
62%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
35%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
54%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
18%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
84%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.53 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.10

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
68%
level
19%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
13%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Nizhny Novgorod

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 in Premier League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.