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Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit — Premier League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit
Zenit
11/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Sovcombank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod23%
×Draw25%
Zenit52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
0.96
Zenit
1.58

Zenit creates 65% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 120 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.15
Zenit
1.64

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.53
Zenit
0.78

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
48%
Nizhny Novgorod or Zenit
75%
Draw or Zenit
77%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
8%
Zenit wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
62%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
25%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
7%
Zenit 1+ goals
79%
Zenit 2+ goals
47%
Zenit 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
31%
Zenit (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 78 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.15 + Zenit defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Zenit attack 1.64 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
23%
level
25%
Zenit scores more
52%

Zenit at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit

Zenit beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 in Premier League on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Sovcombank Arena in Nizhny Novgorod.