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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Lazio — UEFA Champions League 2026

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
A. Erokhin 32'
F. Caicedo 82'
11/4/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group F - 3Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg47%
×Draw25%
Lazio28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.58
Lazio
1.17

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.67
Lazio
1.00

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.33
Lazio
1.50

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
72%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Lazio
75%
Draw or Lazio
53%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
24%
Lazio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
79%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
47%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
21%
Lazio 1+ goals
69%
Lazio 2+ goals
33%
Lazio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
62%
Lazio (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.67 + Lazio defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lazio attack 1.00 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
47%
level
25%
Lazio scores more
28%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
F. AcerbiLazioLazio · D
8.3

Match Events

4'
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
7'
Daler Kuzyaev
32'
A. Erokhin↳ A. Dzyuba
52'
D. Cataldi← M. Parolo
59'
Sergej Milinković-Savić
59'
F. Caicedo← V. Muriqi
59'
Andreas Pereira← M. Fares
61'
A. Mostovoy← A. Erokhin
78'
Wílmar Barrios
78'
Felipe Caicedo
78'
D. Krugovoy← Y. Zhirkov
82'
F. Caicedo↳ F. Acerbi
85'
Dejan Lovren
85'
Pepe Reina
85'
Luiz Felipe← J. Correa
86'
Danil Krugovoy
90+1'
Wendel← D. Kuzyaev
90+1'
A. Sutormin← M. Ozdoev

Possession

46%Zenit

Shots

7Zenit

Pass accuracy

49%Zenit

Statistics

ZenitLazio
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots15
3Corners3
16Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots15
2On Target3
3Off Target7
2Blocked5
3Inside Box4
4Outside Box11
Passing
46%Possession54%
444Total Passes521
355Accurate Passes437
80%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls9
4Yellow Cards4
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Lazio

Zenit Saint Petersburg and Lazio drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League on November 4, 2020.

Goals: A. Erokhin (32'), F. Caicedo (82').

Lazio controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.