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Lazio vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — UEFA Champions League 2026

Lazio
Lazio
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
C. Immobile 55' (pen), 3'
M. Parolo 22'
A. Dzyuba 25'
11/24/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group F - 4Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lazio63%
×Draw20%
Zenit Saint Petersburg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
2.11
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.00

Lazio creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lazio
2.00
Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.67

allows per match

Lazio
1.33
Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.22

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par
Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
83%
Lazio or Zenit Saint Petersburg
80%
Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg
37%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
39%
Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
88%
Lazio 2+ goals
62%
Lazio 3+ goals
35%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
63%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
26%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
79%
Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 2.00 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 0.67 + Lazio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lazio scores more
63%
level
20%
Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
17%

Lazio at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
C. ImmobileLazioLazio · F
8.6

Match Events

3'
C. Immobile↳ Lucas Leiva
22'
M. Parolo↳ J. Correa
25'
A. Dzyuba↳ Y. Rakitskiy
37'
A. Sutormin← Douglas Santos
38'
Wílmar Barrios
48'
Dejan Lovren
55'
C. ImmobilePenalty
59'
L. Musaev← A. Mostovoy
59'
S. Driussi← W. Barrios
60'
Luiz Felipe← Patric
60'
J. Akpro← M. Parolo
68'
M. Fares← M. Lazzari
68'
D. Cataldi← Lucas Leiva
73'
S. Azmoun← Y. Zhirkov
74'
D. Shamkin← A. Erokhin
76'
Yaroslav Rakitskiy
81'
V. Muriqi← C. Immobile
89'
Francesco Acerbi

Possession

48%Lazio

Shots

12Lazio

Pass accuracy

50%Lazio

Statistics

LazioZenit
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots13
6Corners2
7Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots13
7On Target5
2Off Target6
3Blocked2
9Inside Box6
3Outside Box7
Passing
48%Possession52%
477Total Passes509
412Accurate Passes439
86%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

UEFA Champions League: Lazio 3–1 Zenit Saint Petersburg

Lazio beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 3-1 in UEFA Champions League on November 24, 2020.

Goals: C. Immobile (3', 55' pen), M. Parolo (22'), A. Dzyuba (25').

Zenit Saint Petersburg controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.