Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Krylya Sovetov — Cup 2019

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
10/31/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg62%
×Draw21%
Krylya Sovetov17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.04
Krylya Sovetov
0.98

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 108% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.39
Krylya Sovetov
1.53

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.43
Krylya Sovetov
1.68

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
83%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Krylya Sovetov
79%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
38%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
38%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
87%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
60%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
33%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
62%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
26%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
78%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.39 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.04

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
62%
level
21%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
17%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Zenit Saint Petersburg 1–0 Krylya Sovetov

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Krylya Sovetov 1-0 in Cup on October 31, 2023.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.